We are at the cusp of the fourth industrial revolution. The underlying new technology cores have already started fueling waves of innovations. Like the past three industrial revolutions, these innovation waves will cause destruction to existing products, jobs, firms, and industries. Subsequently, they will also create new jobs, and firms. At the inflection point of this transformation, we face uncertainty about how creative destruction shapes the future of work, particularly in employment and skill requirements. Moreover, projections of massive job loss threat by universities, think tanks, and international consultancies have also created a fear factor. On the other hand, there is also a belief that the future of work will be brighter like the past. There will be more jobs and also better-quality jobs. The future of work will relieve us from tedious, monotonous, and physically stress full jobs. Those jobs will also offer us more pay than ever before.
Both two schools of thought have arguments in favor of them. Nevertheless, they cannot agree. The debate about the future of work is yet to conclude. However, the future of work will highly be influenced by the nature of unfolding innovation waves of creative destruction. However, to drive those waves, a set of technologies should keep progressing. One of them is humanoid to reshape the future of work in the service sector. This article reviews some past waves and envisions future waves of innovation to shed merit in the debate of future work.
Creative waves of destruction drive progression
Human beings have an innate tendency to get jobs done better at less cost while having more comfort. To meet it, they develop ideas by feeding knowledge into their inherent creative process. They use those ideas to recreate existing means for getting jobs done better. Market economy thinkers observed it, and they wanted to capitalize it to drive prosperity. Subsequently, they adopted principles for encouraging freedom of thinking and pursuing ideas. Profit-making incentives for offering higher quality products at lower cost through ideas are at the core of entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs are always hunting for ideas. Some of those ideas form new technology core to create a new wave of innovation. Instead of improving existing products, they focus on innovating substitution.
For example, instead of recreating an oil lamp to offer a better version, Thomas Alpha Edition pursued an electric light bulb. Similarly, as opposed to designing a better keyboard for smartphones, Steve Jobs pursued the idea of keyboard-less design. Such a journey of pursuing ideas for substitution around alternative technology core leads to the formation of innovation waves of creative destruction. Despite primitive emergence at the beginning, some of them grow to offer a better alternative at a lower cost. Some of the technologies powering creative waves of destruction of robotics are worth monitoring.
Switching of demand determines how creative destruction shapes the future of work
Subsequently, the switching of demand from incumbent products to emerging substitution destroys jobs associated with the production, distribution, and consumption of products around the previous technology core. For example, the uprising of the automobile destroyed jobs for making horse wagons, horseshoes, and horse breeding. However, the new wave also creates jobs. Obviously, they are of different types requiring different capabilities. For example, automobiles created jobs for making an internal combustion engine as opposed to breeding horses.
Unfolding waves of creative destruction are at the core of offering us better means to get our jobs done better. Due to this effect, our quality of life keeps improving. But as the next innovation is quite different from the previous wave, we experience job loss and creation. Hence, we face transformation and uncertainty. To address it, we need to monitor and predict the next waves of innovation, having creative destruction potential. However, not all innovations form waves having the possibility of causing destruction to demand of existing products, jobs, and also skills,
A creative wave of steam engine shaped work in the first industrial revolution
Before the invention of the steam engine, the power of muscle, wind, and water used to be the sources of energy. To increase the source of energy, human beings domesticated animals. In delivering energy to productive activities, human beings had to perform arduous work. For example, they used to rotate wheels with their muscle power. The steam engine innovations emerged to take that energy-providing role. They kept growing as creative destruction. Subsequently, humans were relieved from providing energy, and they were given the role to make, fuel, and operate steam engine machinery. Due to the uprising of those innovations, the quality and cost of products kept falling. Subsequently, demand kept increasing. Consequently, it led to the demand for human engagement, but for performing less tedious jobs. Innovation waves powered by steam engines caused destructions to previous jobs and subsequently offered higher quality, more jobs to human beings.
Transformation of work during the second industrial revolution
Like the first one, the second industrial revolution progressed with the unfolding of s series of creative waves of destruction. Several newly emerged technology cores fueled those innovation waves. The internal combustion engine, electricity, electric motors, and telephone were notable ones. Among several innovation waves, the internal combustion engine-powered the innovation wave of automobiles. The creative destruction force of automobiles recreated the transportation industry. It also created many supporting industries, including petroleum. Similarly, creative waves of light bulbs, airplanes, and radios brought transformational changes in the job market. Particularly, job division and specialization with the support of streamlining production processes led to the creation of demand for low-skilled workers for manufacturing. In fact, the nature of forming and unfolding an innovation wave affects the transformation of jobs and shapes the future of work.
Artificially intelligent machines like to power creative destruction shaping the future of work
At the dawn of the fourth industrial revolution, we are in an uncertain state about the future of work. To bring clarity, we should detect technology cores and their capability of fueling waves of innovation, having destruction abilities. They are called disruptive technologies. Sensors, microprocessors, algorithms, and wireless connections are forming a new technology core. Of course, this technology core has the capability to fuel innovations. For example, adaptive cruise control in an automobile is an innovation based on this technology. Similarly, robots’ ability to sense and perceive to deal with variations is an example. Obviously, they will change the nature of work. But will they grow as a force of creative destruction? For example, will we succeed in having fully autonomous driving capability to destroy the jobs of driving? Of course, there are uncertainties.
Nonetheless, some trends are visible. For example, labor reduction in all major productive activities has been taking place due to machines’ increasing intelligence capability. As a result, the nature of work has been changing. In many productive activities, machines have taken the central role of production, while offering a supporting role to humans. This trend will be likely to continue. However, the complexity in building human-like innate abilities in machines will slow down the progression of deploying intelligent machines.
Battery, motor, and renewable energy form a technology core
Battery and motor are forming a new technology core. Once they are linked with renewable energy, even a stronger technology core is formed. The batter-motor technology core is fueling the electric vehicle innovation wave. This innovation wave can cause creative destruction to the internal combustion engine (ICE) and labor-based value addition in the automobile sector. For example, once battery&motor grow as a better substitute to IC, demand for ICE will evaporate. Subsequently, the jobs for making some automobile components will be destroyed. In addition to it, the jobs associated with maintaining and repairing ICE will also diminish. As a replacement, there will be jobs for making batteries, motors, and electronics. But they will demand different skills. Moreover, they will demand far less labor due to high-level automation.
In addition to it, there is a trend that renewable energy sources, like solar and wind power, will become a cheaper alternative to produce electricity. The uprising of these two waves has the potential to cause destruction to the global oil industry.
Unmanned aerial vehicles to shape the future of work in farming
So far farming is based on human labor, animal energy, and mechanical machinery. So far, farming practices have been suffering from a lack of precision in sensing, perception, and decision making. Subsequently, it is lading to imprecise actions like inexact distribution of farming inputs like fertilizer, pesticides, and water. The development of low-cost, compact sensors, software, onboard computers, and communication capability is forming a technology core around unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These UAVs are loaded with sensors, software, and farming inputs. While flying over the farmland, they keep producing a detailed map of fertility, crop health, and pest attack. Subsequently, based on that intelligence, they precisely distribute needed inputs.
It’s expected that this innovation will keep growing and unfolding as a force of creative destruction. Along with the offering of better means of farming, this innovation wave will also reduce the demand for manual and mechanical machinery for the distribution of inputs. Subsequently, there will be a change in the future of work for farming. There will be new jobs for innovating and operating new means of getting farming jobs done better.
How to predict how creative destruction shapes the future of work
In fact, due to the inherent urge to have a better quality of life, human beings are after a relentless journey of producing ideas. Those ideas have been unfolding as innovation for offering us better means in getting our jobs done. Some of those ideas are forming new technology core and fueling the uprising of a creative wave of destruction. Due to these creative destructions, transformations take place. Consequentially, the nature of works keeps changing. To have better clarity about the like future of work, we should study the unfolding of past creative destructions and their implications on the nature of work. In addition to it, we should keep monitoring the formation and growth of emerging technology core.
Ultimately, we should keep monitoring and predicting unfolding waves of creative destruction. To sum up, we should predict how creative destruction shapes the future of work. For example, the premature retirement of Honda’s ASIMO will slow down likely transformation in the service sector.
